Canada's Olympic Curling Trials

[Woody0]

Tim Horton's Roar of the Rings Curling Tournament will be held in Halifax Dec 3 - Dec 11, with the winners representing Canada in men's and women's Olympic Curling.

The format is a round robin among 10 teams, who will each play 9 matches, to determine the semi-finalists.

Defending Canadian and World Champion Randy Ferbey is the favourite in the men's event. Pinnacle has lines on the outright winner with Ferbey at +203. Looks like a good price since he was only +100 to win the World Championship, against an admittedly weaker field of non-Canadians.

There will be 3 draws each day starting with two women's and one men's tomorrow. I hope to be able to see most of the teams this weekend and to be able to find some good bets next week.

 

[Woody0]

For tonight's men's draw I like Stoughton to win against Gushue currently -130 at Pinnacle. I also like the price on Adams at +189 (Pinnacle),who despite a poorer record than Morris has been playing well and is a value bet at this price..

 

[Kruser6]

Looking forward to your plays. I subscribed to this thread.

 

[Woody0]

Stoughton leading 4-3 gave up a disastrous 4 points on the 9th end, which was the deciding point of the match, for a loss. Adams was in it halfway through but then just got outplayed.

Wednesday's men's draw is at 1 pm EST. There are no lines yet at Pinnacle but they will all be heavy chalk with the exception of Martin-Morris match that I expect to be featured on TSN. Martin has a 4:2 record while Morris is 5:1. I make it pickem and so would expect -108/-108 and will play for value if the line varies significantly. Morris has a small advantage with the hammer on the first end while Martin has the greater experience.

 

[Woody0]

Today I decided to play Stoughton against Howard since I figured I was getting a good price. I also took Martin against Morris going with the experience of the last Olympic champion.

 

[HPark1]

haha, thought I was the only loser betting on this event. :lolBIG: Limits are so small its just for fun.

Just finished getting slapped with Larouche at 7-1 odds this morning. She somehow allows a 5 spot to Lawton after leading 7-3 in late in the match, unreal!

I confess I know very little about curling, I have it on TV in the background and check the results and read a few news articles but thats about it.

I actually took the opposite of both your plays. Got over +150 for each and figured these were toss ups and Howard and Morris have the hammer

I personally think Pinny is overeacting to the records for these guys and giving way too much value as a result. Dacey and Ferbey have both struggled but 3-1 for Dacey? C'mon. Dacey even has the hammer.

Throw me a bone, what am I missing?

 

[Woody0]

Well I really screwed up this morning. Stoughton won but after saying the Morris/Martin match was a pickem and to play value I bet the chalk on Martin like an idiot. Glad you did better HP.

I don't know when the Pinny opening lines go up and haven't seen them. They deal a 16 cent line and my experience is that a max bet ($100) moves the line 14 cents. Since the market is so thin it won't take much to move it so the real question is not "Pinny is overeacting to the records" but what is their opening line and how much has it moved from the limited action? If you get the opening or near opening line men's action can you post it here please? I do agree with your sentiment that the chalk is too high but whether that's the Pinny opener or the subsequent action I don't know.

I haven't bet the women's game as it is enough doing the mens.

The hammer advantage as you know really depends upon how the game unfolds. From what I saw Morris played it to perfection. Most of these teams are really good and the game often turns on a single play (as when Martin made a perfect raised takeout to get 4 points against Ferbey in the 7th end).

I don't know that you're missing anything. I also look for matches that seem to be toss ups and play the plus money (except for Martin today dammit). I also play favourites when I think they should be much bigger favourites.

 

[Woody0]

OK here are the lines for tomorrow morning:


<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width=650 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=wht-title vAlign=top width="14%" bgColor=#000066>Thu 12/8</TD><TD class=wht-title bgColor=#000066 colSpan=4>Dacey vs Stoughton
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title align=middle bgColor=#999999 colSpan=5>Maximum Wager: 100.00 USD</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>04:40 AM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>173 Mark Dacey</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> +254</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio10>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio10>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C1P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk>174 Jeff Stoughton</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> -300</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio11>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio11>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C1P1></TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title vAlign=top width="14%" bgColor=#000066>Thu 12/8</TD><TD class=wht-title bgColor=#000066 colSpan=4>Ryan vs Ferbey
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title align=middle bgColor=#999999 colSpan=5>Maximum Wager: 100.00 USD</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>04:40 AM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>175 Pat Ryan</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> -150</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio20>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio20>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C2P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk>176 Randy Ferbey</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> +133</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio21>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio21>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C2P1></TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title vAlign=top width="14%" bgColor=#000066>Thu 12/8</TD><TD class=wht-title bgColor=#000066 colSpan=4>Adams vs Peachey
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title align=middle bgColor=#999999 colSpan=5>Maximum Wager: 100.00 USD</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>04:40 AM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>177 Shawn Adams</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> -165</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio30>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio30>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C3P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk>178 Jay Peachey</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> +147</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio31>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio31>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C3P1></TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title vAlign=top width="14%" bgColor=#000066>Thu 12/8</TD><TD class=wht-title bgColor=#000066 colSpan=4>Morris vs Howard
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title align=middle bgColor=#999999 colSpan=5>Maximum Wager: 100.00 USD</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>04:40 AM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>179 John Morris</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> -200</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio40>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio40>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C4P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk>180 Glenn Howard</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> +177</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio41>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio41>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C4P1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[HPark1]

Missed Gushue/Martin -108/-108.

Nothing jumps out at me initially. Perhaps its time for Ferbey to put in a good effort. Theoritically he should'nt be an underdog to anyone but I can obviously understand why in this scenario. Ryan seems to playing well however so maybe its not the best move.

I remember awhile back Olympic had curling too, bigger limits as well. Think it was 500us. I suppose this is only trials and maybe they only carry the bigger events.

 

[Woody0]

I took Gushue @ -107. Either it was OTB or I missed it earlier.

This should be the featured game (for me to tape at 5 am) as Gushue is tied for the lead at 6-1 while Martin needs to win his 2 remaining matches and get help to reach the playoffs. Ferbey is only playing for self respect now.

If both Gushue and Morris win they'll both go to 7-1 setting up tomorrow night's match between them to determine the winner of the round robin.

 

[Woody0]

Well I've just reviewed the Gushue/Martin match at mostly 4X speed. I thought the Gushue team were making good shots especially with Nichols and Gushue getting the stones into the front of the house. This is a young team though and their strategy was very shaky at times, in the third and fourth ends and particularly in the 9th leading 8-4 when a risky takeout double missed. Why try to give up only one point when they could elect to give up 2 and take the hammer into the last end leading by 2? That is a rookie error.


For tonight I like Gushue (and hope he doesn't make any stupid strategic error to cost the game) and Stoughton.

Pinnys opening line is below:

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width=650 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=wht-title vAlign=top width="14%" bgColor=#000066>Thu 12/8</TD><TD class=wht-title bgColor=#000066 colSpan=4>Adams vs Ferbey
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title align=middle bgColor=#999999 colSpan=5>Maximum Wager: 100.00 USD</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>03:40 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>181 Shawn Adams</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> +216</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio00>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio00>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C0P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk>182 Randy Ferbey</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> -244</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio01>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio01>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C0P1></TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title vAlign=top width="14%" bgColor=#000066>Thu 12/8</TD><TD class=wht-title bgColor=#000066 colSpan=4>Gushue vs Morris
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title align=middle bgColor=#999999 colSpan=5>Maximum Wager: 500.00 USD</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>03:40 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>183 Brad Gushue</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> -123</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio10>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio10>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C1P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk>184 John Morris</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> +107</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio11>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio11>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C1P1></TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title vAlign=top width="14%" bgColor=#000066>Thu 12/8</TD><TD class=wht-title bgColor=#000066 colSpan=4>Dacey vs Peachey
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title align=middle bgColor=#999999 colSpan=5>Maximum Wager: 100.00 USD</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>03:40 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>185 Mark Dacey</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> -160</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio20>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio20>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C2P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk>186 Jay Peachey</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> +142</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio21>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio21>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C2P1></TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title vAlign=top width="14%" bgColor=#000066>Thu 12/8</TD><TD class=wht-title bgColor=#000066 colSpan=4>Howard vs Ryan
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title align=middle bgColor=#999999 colSpan=5>Maximum Wager: 100.00 USD</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>03:40 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>187 Glenn Howard</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> +157</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio30>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio30>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C3P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk>188 Pat Ryan</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> -175</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio31>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio31>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C3P1></TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title vAlign=top width="14%" bgColor=#000066>Thu 12/8</TD><TD class=wht-title bgColor=#000066 colSpan=4>Martin vs Stoughton
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title align=middle bgColor=#999999 colSpan=5>Maximum Wager: 100.00 USD</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>03:40 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>189 Kevin Martin</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> +101</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio40>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio40>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C4P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk>190 Jeff Stoughton</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> -117</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio41>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio41>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C4P1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[HPark1]

Took Howard just over a buck-seventy. Have no reason to believe Ryan is of better quality then Howard. They were able to slow down the hot Morris team this morning. I trust Howard will play at a good level despite being eliminated as Ryan still is in contention. Howard has the hammer to boot. Don't undestand the logic of this line.

Ferbey is enticing but both players have nothing to play for so I'll pass on this juice.


gl with Gushue Woody. Morris is pretty solid, I think it will be a tight game.

 

[Woody0]

Good call on Howard...it was certainly a close nail biting match while I got almost walkovers.

I'm taking Stoughton for the semi-final (I think he has the psychological edge coming off a clear victory compared with the Morris loss) and Gushue for the final. The Gushue team are on a roll and I don't see them being stopped. All being well they'll bring home Olympic gold.